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Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference...since 1966
   
PNREC 2003 CONFERENCE PROGRAM

Picking Up the Pieces: Challenges to Recovery and Growth in the Pacific Northwest

Spokane, Washington
May 21-23

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THE 2003 PNREC CONFERENCE WAS SPONSORED IN PART BY:

  • Northwest Power Planning Council

  • Office of the Dean, College of Social and Behavioral Science, Eastern Washington University

  • Office of the Dean, College of Business and Public Administration, Eastern Washington University

  • Information Technology Services, Gonzaga University

  • South-Western Publishing Company, Andrew Zorich

  • Avista Utilities

  • Journal of Business

  • U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

  • McGraw-Hill Irwin, Mike Antonucci and Melissa Bryan

  • Canadian Consulate General, Seattle


WEDNESDAY, MAY 21, 2003

7:30 a.m. REGISTRATION DESK OPEN
Location: Ballroom Foyer

8:30 - 8:45 a.m. WELCOME
Dr. Stephen M. Jordan, President Eastern Washington University
Tom Trulove, Conference Chair
Location: Salon V

8:45 - 10:00 a.m. PLENARY PANEL: STATE & PROVINCIAL FISCAL FLIGHT
Moderator: Dr. Lorrie Jo Brown, Washington State Department of Revenue

Representatives from Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and British Columbia discuss the challenges of financing their state, provincial and local governments in the current economy.
Location: Salon V



Panelists:
  • British Columbia: Carol Frketich, BC Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations

  • Idaho: Judith L. Brown

  • Montana: Doug Young, Montana State University Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics

  • Oregon: Theresa McHugh, Deputy Director, State of Oregon Budget and Management Division

  • Washington: John Beck, Gonzaga University School of Business Administration

10:00 - 10:30 a.m. REFRESHMENT BREAK
Location: Ballroom Foyer

10:30 - 11:45 a.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS AND PANELS
S1 - Regional Health Care
Location: Salon I
Chair: Lori Geddes, Eastern Washington University


Presenters:

  • Ying Kong, University College of the Cariboo
    Pseudo-generic Products and Barriers to Entry in Pharmaceutical Markets

  • Lynne Bownds, Eastern Washington University
    Consumer-Driven Health Plans: More Choice is Not Always Better

  • Rod Trytko, M.D., M.B.A., Spokane County Medical Society
    The Physicians View of Health Care Economics

  • Lyndia Vold, Spokane Regional Health District
    Public Health and Health Care Reform


S2 - Regional Spending and Public Policy Issues I
Location: Salon II
Chair: Lorrie Jo Brown, Washington State Department of Revenue


Presenters:
  • John Beck, Gonzaga University
    Lisa Brown, Gonzaga University and Washington State Senate
    Washington's Tax Structure

  • Fanny Nyaribo-Roberts, Washington State Department of Revenue
    Measuring Volatility of Current and Alternative Tax Systems for Washington State

  • Bret Bertolin, Washington State Forecast Council
    The Stability of Washington State Taxes: A Portfolio Approach

  • Rick Peterson, Economist for Washington State House Finance Committee
    Using "SimTax" to Analyze and Simulate Your Own Tax System Ideas

S3 - Regional Labor Markets I
Location: Salon III
Chair: Scott Bailey, Washington State Employment Security Department


Presenters:
  • Alexander Roubinchtein, Washington State Employment Security Department
    David Wallace, Washington State Employment Security Department
    Occupational Wages, Employment and Unemployment in Washington State

  • Kirsta Glenn, Washington State Employment Security Department Carolyn Cummins, Washington State Employment Security Department
    Developing New Workforce Information Products: Job Vacancies and Employee Benefits in Washington State

  • Phil Brooks, Montana Department of Labor and Industry
    Demographics of the Pacific Northwest Regional Workforce: Are Future Worker Shortages Inevitable?

  • Marc Baldwin, Washington State Employment Security Department
    Notes on Low Income Adults in Washington: Churning, Climbing, or Holding Steady?

12:00 - 1:30 p.m. LUNCH AND KEYNOTE SPEAKER
Location: Salon V
Introduction: Lynne Bownds, Eastern Washington University

Keynote Speaker: Thomas Rice, Ph.D. , Department of Health Services, School of Public Health, University of California at Los Angeles
Can Markets Give Us the Health Care System We Want?

1:45 - 3:15 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS AND PANELS
P1 - Health Care Reform
Location: Salon I
Moderator: Dr. David Bunting, Eastern Washington University

Regional panelists address issues raised by Dr. Rice and discuss health care reform and its implications for the Northwest.



Panelists:
  • Melissa Ahern, Washington State University

  • Michael Arnis, Office of the Insurance Commissioner, Washington State

  • Lynne Bownds, Eastern Washington University

  • Tom Fritz, Inland Northwest Health Services


S1 - Regional Environmental and Regulation Issues
Location: Salon II
Chair: Pete Wyman, Spokane Falls Community College and Eastern Washington University


Presenters:
  • Glenn E. Crellin, Washington State University's Washington Center for Real Estate Research
    Assessment of Endangered Species Act and Washington Growth Management Act Enforcement on Real Property Values

  • Michael J. Scott, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory
    Charlie A. Brandt, Amoret L. Bunn, David W. Engel, Paul W. Eslinger, Terri B. Miley, Bruce A. Napier, Leslie A. Nieves, and Ellen L. Prendergast
    Environmental/Economic Risk after the Hanford Cleanup: Using the Systems Assessment Capability (SAC)

  • James R. Jones, University of Idaho
    Implications of the American Trucking Association vs. State of Idaho Heavy Truck Tax Case for Idaho Wheat Competitiveness

  • Charles Scott Benson Jr., Idaho State University
    Is it Time for States to Consider Taxing Internet Sales?


S2 - Regional Economic Growth I
Location: Salon III
Chair: Terry Lawhead, Washington Department of Trade and Economic Development


Presenters:
  • Paul Sommers, University of Washington
    Is there a New Economy?

  • Bruce W. Finnie, Pacific Lutheran University
    Linda K. Gibson, Pacific Lutheran University
    A General Theory of Firm Size and Economic Growth

  • Don Epley, Washington State University
    Construction of the Spokane Economic Activity Growth Index

  • Gary Smith, Washington State University
    Patterns of Regional Per Capita Income Disparity: Does Washington State Look Like the Rest of the Northwest ... or More Like the Deep South?

3:15 - 3:45 p.m. REFRESHMENT BREAK
Location: Ballroom Foyer

3:45 - 5:15 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS AND PANELS
P1 - Impact of Funding Reductions for Mental Health Services in the Region
Location: Salon I
Chair: Mary Ann Keogh, Health Services Administration Program, Eastern Washington University


Panelists:

  • Lyndia Vold, Manager, Assessment Epidemiology Center, Spokane Regional Health District

  • Rafaela Ortiz, Regional Support Network Administrator, Spokane County Mental Health Services

  • Connie Wilmont, Chief Operating Officer, Eastern State Hospital

  • Jeff Thomas, Executive Director, Family Service Spokane


P2 - Pathways to Progress, Revitalizing Small Downtowns
Location: Salon II
Chair: Dick Winchell, Eastern Washington University


Panelists:
  • Stephen Jordan, President, Eastern Washington University

  • Dick Winchell, Department of Urban Planning and Public & Health Administration

  • Charles Dotson, Director, Pathways to Progress

  • Grant D. Forsyth, Department of Economics, Eastern Washington University

S1 - Regional Spending and Public Policy Issues II
Location: Salon III
Chair: Scott Benson, Idaho State University


Presenters:
  • Chris Molitor, Eastern Washington University
    Calculating the Returns to Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges and In-School Work Experience

  • Anthony M. Rufolo, Portland State University
    Issues in Financing Oregon's Roads and Bridges

  • Vincent Van Der Hyde, Oregon Department of Transportation
    Oregon Drivers in Uninsured Accidents: Annual Report Covering Calendar Years 1983-2002

  • William B. Beyers and Stephanie E. Chang, University of Washington
    Economic Impacts of the Nisqually Earthquake on Households in the Puget Sound Region

5:15 - 6:OO p.m. BREAK

6:00 - 8:00 p.m. OPENING RECEPTION AT SPOKANE'S HISTORIC CARROUSEL


The Carrousel is located about three blocks west of the hotel on Spokane Falls Blvd. or along the Spokane River on the Centennial Trail. Enjoy this 1890's amusement and the reception.

THURSDAY, MAY 22, 2003

8:00 a.m. REGISTATION DESK OPEN
Location: Ballroom Foyer

8:30 - 9:45 a.m. PLENARY SESSION AND KEYNOTE SPEAKER
Location: Salon V
Introduction: Tom Trulove, Eastern Washington University

Featured Speaker: Jeffrey J. Schott, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
Assessing NAFTA's First Decade and Future Prospects

9:45 - 10:15 a.m. REFRESHMENT BREAK
Location: Ballroom Foyer

10:15 - 11:45 a.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS AND PANELS
P1 - The Canada/U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute
Location: Salon I
Chair: Hart Hodges, Western Washington University


Panelists:

  • Lois McNabb, Director of Economics and Trade, British Columbia Ministry of Forests

  • Hugh Travaille, Vice President, Potlatch Corporation

  • John Perez-Garcia, Center for International Trade in Forest Products, University of Washington

  • David H. Holland, Washinton State University
    Thomas Heckelei, Washington State University
    Joydeep Ghosh, Washington State University
    The Economic Impact of the Tariff on Canadian Lumber on the Washington Economy


S1 - Regional International Trade Issues
Location: Salon II
Chair: Patrick Jones, Spokane Intercollegiate Research & Technology Institute and Eastern Washington University


Presenters:
  • Richard Harris, Simon Fraser University
    NAFTA: The View from Canada

  • Sandra L. Christensen, Eastern Washington University
    The Political Economy of a Shifting Natural Resource Policy Domain: From "Natural Resources" to "Environmental" to "International Trade"

  • Riley Moore, Saint Martin's College
    An Analysis of Recent Trade Patterns Between China and Washington State since China's Ascension into the World Trade Organization


S2 - Regional Economic Growth II
Location: Salon III
Chair: Michael J. Scott, Battelle Pacific NW Laboratories


Presenters:
  • Ismail H. Genc, University of Idaho
    Steven Peterson, University of Idaho
    The Economic State of Northwestern States during Business Cycles

  • Gary Smith, Washington State University
    Diagnosing Shifts in the Growth and Performance of Spokane's Per Capita Income during the 1990s

  • Mukesh Ralhan, Government of British Columbia
    D. Ajit, University of Northern British Columbia
    The Economic Convergence among Provinces and Territories in Canada: Some New Tests on an old Topic, 1981-2001

  • Michael Rife, PacifiCorp and Portland State University
    California's Diminishing Role in National and Regional Employment Growth

12:00 - 1:30 p.m. LUNCH AND KEYNOTE SPEAKER
Location: Salon V
Introduction: Robert Carbaugh, Central Washington University

Featured Speaker: Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. , Chief Economist and Executive Managing Director, Global Insights
Global Risks and Opportunities in a One-Locomotive World

1:30 - 3:00 p.m. PLENARY SESSION: STATE AND PROVINCIAL FORECASTS
Location: Salon V
Chair: Dr. Gary Smith, Washington State University


Panelists:

  • Alberta: Bob Fox, Fox Consulting

  • British Columbia: Carol Frketich, BC Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations

  • Idaho: Michael Ferguson, Idaho Division of Financial Management

  • Montana: Paul Polzin, University of Montana

  • Oregon: Tom Potiowsky, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

  • Washington: Bret Bertolin, Washington State Office of the Forecast Council

3:00 - 3:30 p.m. REFRESHMENT BREAK
Location: Ballroom Foyer

3:00 - 5:00 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
S1 - Regional Demography and Regional Amenity
Location: Salon I
Chair: Tom Karier, Northwest Power Planning Council


Presenters:

  • Paul E. Polzin, University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research
    James T. Sylvester, University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research
    Migration and Mobility Trends in a High Amenity Region

  • W. Ashley Ahrens, University of Alaska Southeast
    The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend and Fertility Rates

  • Gordon Goodman, Executive Director, Business Development Program, Olympic Bid Secretariat, Victoria, B.C.
    British Columbia's Bid for the Olympics

  • John Fazio, Northwest Power Planning Council
    Cost and Energy Impacts of Fish and Wildlife Operations


S2 - Regional Labor Markets II
Location: Salon II
Chair: Krista Glenn, Washington State Employment Security Department


Presenters:
  • Thomas Powers, University of Montana
    Decomposing Regional Average Pay into Job-Mix and Wages-Paid Effects: A Conceptually Clear and Theorically Correct Approach

  • Steve Cooke, University of Idaho
    Understanding the Decline in Real Wages in the Rocky Mountain States of the U.S. Between 1978 and 1988: A Test of the Power and Barrett Wages-Paid Hypothesis

  • Richard Barrett, University of Montana
    Thomas Powers, University of Montana
    Is there a "Local Economy?" Implications of Labor Mobility for "Local" Economic Policy

  • Jane Field, Employment Security Department
    Tim Norris, Employment Security Department
    Introducing Workforce Explorer

5:00 - 6:OO p.m. BREAK

6:00 - 8:00 p.m. RECEPTION AT THE HOTEL
Location: Salon V


FRIDAY, MAY 23, 2003

8:00 a.m. REGISTATION DESK OPEN
Location: Ballroom Foyer

8:30 - 10:00 a.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
S1 - Regional Industry Studies
Location: Salon I
Chair: Randy Barcus, Avista Corporation


Presenters:

  • Terry H. Morlan, Northwest Power Planning Council
    Assessing the Viability of Pacific Northwest Aluminum Smelters

  • Ken Corum, Northwest Power Planning Council
    Benefits of Increased Demand Response in the Pacific Northwest Electrical Power System

  • Bruce W. Finnie, Pacific Lutheran University
    Linda K. Gibson, Pacific Lutheran University
    James S. Peet, Pacific Geographic LLC
    Economic Impact of the Aggregate Industry in Washington State

  • William B. Beyers, University of Washington
    Bridging the Standard Industrial Classification and North American Industry Classification Systems: Producer Services Trends in the United States from 1995 to 2000

S2 - Economic Development Issues
Location: Salon II
Chair: Chris Lawless, BC Investment Management Corporation


Presenters:
  • Hart Hodges, Western Washington University Center for Economic and Business Research
    Clusters and Planning for Local Economic Development

  • Humaira Falkenberg, Skamania County Economic Development Council
    Rural Economic Development in Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area

  • Tesa Stegner, Idaho State University
    Does a Community's Quality of Life Matter? Residents' Opinions of Their Greenway

  • John Fazio, Northwest Power Planning Council
    Global Warming: Temperature, Streamflows and the Power System

10:00 - 10:30 a.m. REFRESHMENT BREAK
Location: Ballroom Foyer

10:30 - 11:45 a.m. PLENARY SESSION: CHARLES M. TIEBOUT MEMORIAL LECTURE
Location: Salon V
Introduction: Paul Polzin, University of Montana

Featured Speaker: Mark R. Drabenstott, Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Director of The Center for the Study of Rural America
A New Generation of Regional Policies: New Horizons for Regional Science

11:45 - 12:00 a.m. CLOSING ANNOUNCEMENTS


12:30 - 3:00 p.m. Meeting of PNREC Board of Directors.
Location to be announced.


THE 2003 PNREC CONFERENCE WAS SPONSORED IN PART BY:

  • Northwest Power Planning Council

  • Office of the Dean, College of Social and Behavioral Science, Eastern Washington University

  • Office of the Dean, College of Business and Public Administration, Eastern Washington University

  • Information Technology Services, Gonzaga University

  • South-Western Publishing Company, Andrew Zorich

  • Avista Utilities

  • Journal of Business

  • U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

  • McGraw-Hill Irwin, Mike Antonucci and Melissa Bryan

  • Canadian Consulate General, Seattle




   
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