• Daniel W. Axelsen, Washington State University
  Analyzing Workfirst as a Progressive Welfare System Using a Binary Choice Logit Model
  
  
• William B Conerly, Conerly Consulting, LLC
  Welfare Reform in a Recession: What's Oregon to Do in 2002?
  
  
• Bruce A. Weber, Oregon State University
  Mindy Crandall, Oregon State University
  Oregon's Working Poor Before and After Welfare Reform
  
  

• Gerald C.S. Mildner, Portland State University
  Housing Prices and Growth Management in Oregon
  
  
• Jerald W. Johnson, Johnson Gardner, LLC
  Commercial Property Trends in Seattle and Portland
  
  
• Mark C. Edlen, Gerding/Edlen Development Company
  Mixed-Use, Urban Redevelopment in Today's Economy: The Brewery Blocks in Downtown Portland
  
  

5:00 - 7:30 p.m. OPENING RECEPTION

THURSDAY, MAY 16

7:30 - 8:30 a.m. CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
SPONSORED IN PART BY MORGAN STANLEY

8:30 - 9:30 a.m. GENERAL SESSION
National and International Economic Outlook Session
Chair: John Mitchell, U.S. Bank

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Co-Founder, Economy.com
The Character of the Current Recovery

This session will consider the prospects for the U.S. and global economics. Both the new-term and the longer-term outlooks will be considered.

SPONSORED BY INTEL CORPORATION

9:30 - 9:45 a.m. BEVERAGE BREAK
SPONSORED BY PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC

9:45 - 11:00 a.m. GENERAL SESSION
State And Provincial Forecast Session
Chair: John Mitchell, U.S. Bank

Panelists:

• Oregon: Tom Potiowsky, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  
  
• British Columbia: Carol Frketich, BC Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations
  
  
• Idaho: Michael Ferguson, Idaho Division of Financial Management
  
  
• Alberta: Bob Fox, Fox Consulting
  
  
• Washington: David Wallace, Washington State Employment Security Department
  
  
• Montana: Paul Polzin, University of Montana
  
  

11:15 a.m. - 12:15 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
B1 - Rural Transportation
Chair: Patrick Balducci,
Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Presenters:

• Joanthan Newkirk, Washington State University
  Theresa Smith, Washington State Department of Transportation
  The Functions and Benefits of Rural Airports in Washington
  
  
• Eric Jessup, Washington State University
  Ken Casavant, Washington State University
  How Do We Aggregate Contingent Valuation Responses?: Rural Transit Benefits
  
  

• David Anderson, Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  Michael J. Scott, Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  Amoret Bunn, Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  River Recreation Visitor Expenditure Profile and Use Characteristics in the Middle Columbia River Corridor: Implications for Environmental Modeling
  
  
• Garth Taylor, University of Idaho
  Stacie Woodall, University of Idaho
  John Foltz, University of Idaho
  Philip Wandschneider, Washington State University
  The Recreational Value of Idaho Wineries
  
  

• Selahattin Bekmez, University of Idaho
  Is Integration with Europe Good Enough For the Turkish Producers?
  
  
• Korn?ia Szick, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
  Agriculture and Environment as Hungary Approaches EU Membership
  
  
• Hanan Morsy
  International Financial Crisis Contagion
  
  

• Ken Corum, Northwest Power Planning Council
  Demand Side Contributions to Reliability in the Pacific Northwest Electrical Power System: Recent Experience and Prospects for the Future
  
  
• Stephen Grover, ECONorthwest
  Shedding Light on Energy Efficient Lighting Markets in the Pacific Northwest
  
  

12:30 - 2:00 p.m. LUNCH AND KEYNOTE SPEAKER
Chair: Gus Mattersdorff

Comments in Memory of Art Harnish

Dallas Burtraw, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
The Making of Energy Policy Through Environmental Policy
In a world with relatively stable fossil fuel prices that are the lowest in history, environmental policy has become the critical factor shaping our energy future. The multipolutant debate is the current feature of U.S. energy policy.

SPONSOR BY NORTHWEST POWER PLANNING COUNCIL

2:00 - 3:15 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
B5 - A Conversation on Environmental Economics
Chair: Gus Mattersdorff, Lewis and Clark College

Panelists:

• Dallas Burtraw, Resources for the Future
  
  
• Ralph Cavanagh, Natural Resources Defense Council
  
  
• Ed Whitelaw, University of Oregon, ECONorthwest
  
  
• Eban Goodstein, Lewis and Clark College
  
  

• Lynne Bownds, Eastern Washington University
  Distributional Consequences of Defined-Contribution Health Plans
  
  
• Ying Kong, University College of the Cariboo
  Price Premium to Brand-Names and Pharmaceutical Price Index
  
  
• Cynthia D. Hill, Idaho State University
  Potential Means of Reducing Pharmaceutical Cost to Medicaid in Idaho
  
  

• Patrick Balducci, Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  The Findings and Recommendations of the Transportation Work Groups Established for the 2001 Oregon State Senate General Government and Transportation Committee
  
  
• James R. Jones, Selahattin Bekmez, and Matthew Hornbacher,
  University of Idaho
  Conversion of Idaho's Weight Distance Tax on Heavy Trucks to a Registration System: Horizontal Equity and Other Issues
  
  
• Anthony M. Rufolo, Portland State University
  Economic Issues in Evaluating Alternatives to the Motor Fuel Tax
  
  

• Steve Phelps, Badgley, Phelps and Bell
  
  
• Mark Robins, Redchip, Portland
  
  
• Bob Toomey, Dain Rauscher, Seattle
  
  

3:15 - 3:45 p.m. BEVERAGE BREAK

SPONSORED BY HOME BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF METROPOLITAN PORTLAND

3:45 - 5:00 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
B9 - Panel on Resource Economics in Salmon Policy
Members of the Northwest Power Planning Council's Independent Economic Analysis Board
Chair: Tom Karier, Northwest Power Planning Council
Overview and Explanation of the IEAB's Role

Panelists:

• Daniel Huppert, IEAB Chair and University of Washington
  River Economics: Evaluating Trade-Offs In Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Planning
  
  
• Paul Sorensen, Principal, Belyea, Sorensen Trottier & Associates
  Review of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Lower Snake River Environmental Impact Statement/Feasibility Report
  
  
• Joel Hamilton, University of Idaho
  Economics of Water Acquisition for Instream Flow and Salmon Enhancement: Application to Okanogan Irrigation District and Colville Tribe's Salmon Creek Project
  
  

• Elizabeth Laderman, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  Changes in Northwest Market Concentration in Mortgage and Small Business Lending
  
  
• Grant D. Forsyth, Eastern Washington University
  The Performance of Firms Supported by SBA Micro Loans in Washington State in the 1990s
  
  
• Krissa Wrigley, Idaho Department of Commerce
  An Analysis of Capital Availability in Rural and Urban Idaho Counties
  
  

• Tom Zepp, Utility Resources Inc.
  Pricing in the Telecommunications Industry
  
  
• Robert Sahr, Oregon State University
  The Public's Attitude Toward Government Imposed User Fees
  
  
• Leo Huff, Oregon Department of Transportation
  Why Highway Pricing Has Not Occurred in the Portland Area
  
  

• Gary Smith, Washington State University
  Monitoring and Diagnosing Local Area Changes in Income Composition Across the Pacific Northwest Via NIIP
  
  
• Stephen Cooke, University of Idaho
  Judith Brown, University of Idaho
  U.S. and Idaho Earnings Decomposition: 1969 to 1999, Examining the Power and Barrett Hypotheses
  
  
• Kirsta Glenn, Washington State Employment Security
  Alexander Roubinchtein, Washington State Employment Security
  The Structural Changes in Employment Projections
  
  

5:00 - 7:00 p.m. OFFSITE RECEPTION
Natural Capital Center, EcoTrust Conference Center
Located in Portland's booming Pearl District with its lofts, restaurants and shops. Transportation via Portland's new streetcar system.

FRIDAY, MAY 17

8:30 - 9:00 a.m. CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

9:00 - 9:30 a.m. GENERAL SESSION
William Jeske
Comments in Memory of Art Harnish

Gus Mattersdorff Student Paper Awards
Paul Sommers, Chair of the Awards Committee

9:30 - 10:00 a.m. BEVERAGE BREAK

10:00 - 11: 30 a.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
C1 - Technology in the New Economy
Chair: Heike Mayer, Portland State University

Presenters:

• Lily Hsueh, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  Gary Zimmerman, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  The Evolution of High-Tech Development in Washington State
  
  
• Paul Sommers, University of Washington
  Deena Heg, University of Washington
  High-Tech and the Cascade Curtain
  
  
• William B. Beyers, University of Washington
  The New Economy: From Riches to Rags?
  
  

• Bill Jaeger, Oregon State University
  Water Allocation Alternatives in the Upper Klamath Basin
  
  
• Michael J. Scott, Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratories
  Water Security Under Climate Change in the Yakima Valley: Managing Under Uncertainty
  
  
• John J. Maxfield, Lewis and Clark College
  What Price do Commercial Water Consumers Respond To
  
  
• Bruce Finnie, Pacific Lutheran University
  Federick Wolf, Pacific Lutheran University
  Linda Gibson, Pacific Lutheran University
  John Brower, Montana Tech - University of Montana
  Revisiting the 1872 Mining Act
  
  

• Ed Waters, Oregon Legislative Revenue Office
  
  
• Bruce Weber, Oregon State University
  
  
• David Holland, Washington State University
  
  

• Orn B. Bodvarsson, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
  Hendrick Van den Berg, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
  How Does Immigration Affect Local Economy Demand?: A Test of Dawson County, Nebraska
  
  
• Robert W. Anderson, Bonneville Power Administration
  The Security of Energy Policy: Commanding Heights or Comparative Advantage?
  
  
• David Bunting, Eastern Washington University
  Evaluating Economic Impact: A Review of the PNW Aluminum Industry Studies
  
  
• Trent Ball, Washington State University
  Ken Casavant, Washington State University
  Impacts of a Snake River Drawdown on Energy and Emissions, Based on Regional Energy Coefficients
  
  

11: 30 - 12:00 p.m. BREAK & HOTEL CHECKOUT

12:00 - 1:30 p.m. JOINT LUNCH WITH THE CITY CLUB OF PORTLAND
Dr. Alice M. Rivlin, Senior Fellow in Economic Studies,
The Brookings Institution
Dilemas of Modern Capitalism

Dr. Rivlin will talk about the success of the U.S. economy in the 1990s, some lessons of those successes, and the outlook for the next few years. She will focus on three issues:

1. How to make the economic system work for everyone - not just the educated, the skilled and the lucky;
   
   
2. How to ensure a culture of integrity;
   
   
3. How to ensure that, in our enthusiasm for harnessing private motives to produce goods and services efficiently, we don't neglect needed public goods and community actions.
   
   

1:30 - 3:00 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS
C5 - High Technology Industry Panel
Chair: Bill MacKenzie, Intel Corporation

Panelists:

• Joseph Cortright, Impresa Consulting, Inc.
  
  
• Paul Sommers, University of Washington
  
  

• Thomas J. Flottemesch, Washington State University
  On School Enrollment and Family Willingness to Pay for Education
  
  
• John Krieg and Paul Storer, Western Washington University
  Differences in School ITBS Scores:
  How Much Does the School Matter?
  
  
• Kate Stirling, University of Puget Sound
  Jo Peters, Washington State Department of Social and Health Services
  Balancing the Needs of Children and their Parents: A Study of Washington State Child Support Orders
  
  

• Ben Rashford and Bruce A. Weber, Oregon State University
  How Viable is Oregon Agriculture? A Test of the Blank Hypothesis
  
  
• Eric Jessup, Washington State University
  Wayne Stigge, Washington State University
  The Dynamics of Grain Industry Changes from U.S. Policy Shifts
  
  
• Eric Jessup, Washington State University
  Modeling the Changing Landscape of Washington Grain Elevators: Impacts from Capital Investment in Large Scale, Intermodal, Grain Handling Facilities
  
  

• Kenneth Johnson, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  Implementation of NAICS in the National and Regional Economic Accounts
  
  
• John Murphy, Chair of the Economic Classification Policy Committee
  Implementation of NAICS in the 2002 Economic Census and Subsequent Surveys
  
  
• David Talan, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
  Implementation of NAICS in BLS Employment and Price Programs
  
  

3:00 - 3:30 p.m. BEVERAGE BREAK
SPONSORED BY PORT OF PORTLAND

3:30 - 4:30 pm. CLOSING GENERAL SESSION
Gary Smith, PNREC President and Washington State University
Summary of Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference 2002
Passing the Torch for PNREC 2003 in Spokane, Washington

5:00 p.m. PNREC BOARD MEETING